India and Pakistan - historic conflict and future outlooks

On May 3rd after 2 years of hostility and volatile relations, India and Pakistan announced that they were resuming full diplomatic ties and that ambassadors would soon be appointed for each nation. Since the division of the nations in 1947 there has been frequent conflict and unrest. This article examines the history of relations between India and Pakistan, their role in the region of South Asia and the future of the region.

History of India

India is a vast country, the seventh largest in the world occupying 1,222,396 square miles. According to a 2001 census it's population was 1,027,015,247 which makes it the second most populous country in the world, behind China. According to this census, literacy stands at 65%. Life expectancy is estimated at around 60 years of age.

India's civilization began around 2500 BC and even at this time there was the elements of the now most prevalent religion Hinduism. According to data from the 1991 census, 82% of India's population is Hindu, 12.1% Muslim, 2.3% Christian, 1.9% Sikh, 0.8% Buddhist and 0.4% Jains.

In ancient history between 2000 and 3000 BC the sophisiticated Indus civilization had its core in what is now known as Pakistan. From this heart it emulated out into the rest of India. Aryans from Central Asia migrated to India in approximately 1500 BC. They integrated with the population already there and formulated some fundamental beliefs surrounding religion, social institutions and language which have remained ingrained in Indian society. There have been numerous empires ruling India from this time until modern day India including Greek and Persian empires. Muslim influence began in the 13th Century, then the Mongols invaded the region in the 16th Century.

With European imperialism beginning in the 16th Century and extending through until the 20th Century, a number of European countries took an interest in India. However the British became the most dominant initially through the money-making efforts of the East India Company. They developed industries such as cotton, tea and coal and created a rail network in India to transport the goods. In 150 years of presence in India the British company established a very effective system of administration and infrastructure. However an uprising in northern India led to the British Government assuming control of the profitable country in 1858 dividing it into administrative districts.

The beginning of the 20th Century saw the first real challenges to British rule in India. The infamous Mohandas Gandi became the key figure in the movement against colonialism through his non-violent methods of struggle. The first civil disobedience was organized in 1920 but this ended when violence broke out 2 years later. Gandi continued leading the battle against British rule for the next 30 years. The movement gained much momentum after World War II when Britain was itself in pieces and could no longer realistically command authority in its various colonies.

Division of India into India and Pakistan

In 1946 Britain declared it was in the process of granting India its independence. However the Muslim minority in India understood that this would lead to governing rule by Hindus who made up the vast majority of the population. The Hindu movement was represented by Gandi under the Congress title and the Muslims by Mohammed Ali Jinnah of the Muslim League. In 1947 following much protest and unrest, Lord Mountbatten decided the only solution was to create the requested partition and India and Pakistan were created as separate nations.

Partitioning was not an easy process and there was large scale conflict with 500,000 deaths. Gandi tried to calm the situation but was assassinated in 1948 by a Hindu extremist. The partition led to a huge movement of Muslims into Pakistan and relocation of Hindus and Sikhs into the territory of India. It is estimated that as many as 10 million people relocated.

A major issue of the partitioning was that the Muslim territories were not together and lay on opposite sides of the large Indian territory. They were known as East and West Pakistan and later became Pakistan and Bangladesh following Indian intervention.

When India was divided by Lord Mountbatten, Kashmir became a state which was left to align with either nation. Kashmir in the north of India was predominately Muslim so had strong allegiance to Pakistan. However its ruler was a Hindu and in 1948 he ceded Kashmir to India which inevitably led to a conflict between the newly created nations. The UN intervened but not decisively, simply dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan with a 'Line of Control' and proposing a referendum for the people of Kashmir to vote on which country they wished to join but this has never happened. The weak solution has led to subsequent wars with Pakistan over Kashmir notably in 1965.

Since independence India has struggled with control of its vast country, its diverse people and its opposing neighbour. Two prime ministers have been assassinated, Mrs Indira Gandhi in 1984 and Rajiv Gandhi her son in 1991. There have been demands for autonomous rule by Sikhs, India has fought in 3 wars, one with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, and there have been continuing economic problems and instability.

Pakistan

The partition created a country now known as Pakistan. It occupies a much smaller region than India, 310,321 square miles and has approximately a tenth of the population of India at 131.5 million according to the 1995 census. Life expectancy rates are similar to those of India at approximately 58 years. The majority of the population of Pakistan is Muslim at 97%, with Buddhists, Christians, Hindus and Parsee making up the remaining 3%.

Since the division Pakistan has had similar issues to its neighbour. The first prime minister Liaqat Ali Khan was assassinated in 1951. By 1956, Pakistan declared itself an Islamic Republic but this was receded in 1962. The division of Pakistan into East and West created serious issues and by 1971 west Pakistan became a separate country known as Bangladesh. Pakistan continues to argue that Kashmir is not a part of India and that India must honour the plebiscite requested by the UN in 1948/9.

Kashmir Although known commonly as Kashmir the state is actually made up of many regions. Kashmir and Jammu simply represent those regions with the greatest population. Some sections of the state are under Pakistani occupation whilst others are controlled by China and the largest section Kashmir and Jammu is under Indian authority. In terms of geographical areas, India controls the south and the east and have the largest population mass, Pakistan controls the north and west and China through their battles with India, also lay claim to a small section of northern Kashmir.

UN involvement in Kashmir 1948 In 1948, the newly established UN Security Council showed concern over the volatile situation between India and Pakistan, particularly over the issue of Kashmir. They undertook talks with both India and Pakistan over the situation of Kashmir and concluded that the accession of Kashmir should be achieved through a free and democratic plebiscite. It gave instructions to both the government of India and Pakistan which have never been fully adhered to. Pakistan were asked to ensure that fighters from Pakistan who were not Kashmir residents return to Pakistan and to make Kashmir residents aware that they were freely able to vote without restrictions on the subject of accession to India or Pakistan. India were instructed to withdraw their armed forces leaving only those necessary for civil law and order. Forces were to be of minimum strength and not intimidatory to Kashmir residents and they were to ensure that resident's ability to act and vote freely were not restricted. The organization to facilitate the administration of a plebiscite or referendum was given to the government of India to undertake whilst the UN appointed the chief Plebiscite Administrator who the government of India were instructed to cooperate with on all circumstances. UN Security Council Resolution 1948

The fight over Kashmir - what actually happened?

Since the division of India, Kashmir has been a huge cause of conflict between India and Pakistan. The largest population in Kashmir is of muslim faith and therefore Pakistan argues that they should be under Pakistani rule and not under Indian rule where Hinduism is the principle religion.

There is much propaganda from all parties over the past and present situation in Kashmir and it is difficult to know what the true situation is. However an interesting angle is offered from a website which was created by people from within Kashmir and Jammu, who claim that the free information that they provide represents the actual history and state of affairs in Kashmir. Their site seems to offer a balance of opinion.

In terms of why the plebiscite was never held, they contend that before the UN involvement in the dispute, Kashmir was an independent country and signed agreements with both countries to this accord. However Pakistan did not honour the agreement and invaded parts of Kashmir which in turn led the ruler of the state the Mahajara to turn to India for support and the state was legally signed over to India. A war broke out in the region between India and Pakistan forces and eventually the UN intervened and suggested in their resolution that a plebiscite should be held. The site maintains that the reason why the plebiscite was never undertaken on Kashmir was because Pakistan forces refused to leave the areas in the state that they had invaded and therefore a free and fair vote could not take place. They assert that this is still the case today and therefore a referendum today would still not solve the situation. For an interesting read on the situation in Kashmir, visit their website at Jammu-Kashmir.com

Besides the continuing debate over Kashmir, India and Pakistan have had difficult relations over other issues. In 1971, India and Pakistan went to war over what was seen as Indian intervention in East Pakistan and shortly afterwards the territory became a separate country Bangladesh. India and Pakistan have both resorted to developing nuclear weapons as a threat against each other.

The difference of religions in each country is seen as a principle issue of contention. However whether this is at the root of the antagonism or whether this difference simply exasperates other issues remains to be seen.

Similarities between India and Pakistan - hope for the future?

Although they differ markedly in their religious and cultural beliefs, India and Pakistan actually have a vast number of similarities which could be utilized to form a better relationship in the future.

Firstly they share thousands of years of history from their origins of the Indus civilization. They have had similar influences and experiences across decades. Before independence, the common goal was to free India from its colonial rulers. They shared in the fight against Britain. With the division of India and Pakistan a multitude of issues arose involving the fight for power and control of the new nations and frustrations turned the countries against each other.

Politically, India and Pakistan share a very similar system of government, whereby both countries have a head of state called the president who is elected for a five year term. Both nations also have a prime minister who is head of the government and each have elected ministers who work for the prime minister. The current Prime Minister of Pakistan is Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali and his counterpart in India is Atal Bihari Vajpayee. States within Pakistan and India also have their own regional self-government and legislature. Despite past coups and political violence within Pakistan and India, both do hold democratic elections. With such a commonality in framework, working alongside each other is simplified as there are not starkly alien political systems to contend with.

In terms of economics, the outlook of the nations also has similarities. The unemployment rate and inflation are both around 6% in each country. Agriculture in India makes up around 63% of economic workforce and India is self-sufficient in food grains and produces other food stuffs such as cotton, sugarcane, tea, tobacco and coffee for export. Pakistan also has a strong agricultural dominance with 50% of the working population involved in agriculture. Percentages in the industry and service sectors are also comparable. The possibility for free trade agreements between the two countries is vast.

The first trade agreement between the two countries was on 26th February 1951 and lasted until 30th June 1952. However a free trade agreement would be a new phenomena for India and Pakistan. At present they both have been heavily involved with creating free trade agreements with their neighbouring South Asian countries of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The latest diplomatic situation between the two countries provides an excellent opportunity to put aside their differences and create a profitable economic relationship. This could hopefully inspire better communication and relations on more difficult and sensitive areas such as Kashmir.

The role of India and Pakistan in South Asia

Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives make up the countries of South Asia. Pakistan and India are the largest nations in terms of population and markets with only Bangladesh bearing any challenge with its population of approximately 128 million. The South Asian region is heavily reliant on cooperation between India and Pakistan to be seen as a legitimate player in the global arena. Conflict between the two countries turns away foreign investors from the region as a whole and undermines the stability of the region.

In 1985 the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was formed to increase not only economic and social development but cooperation in the region. To date there have been eleven South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summits with the last one being held in 2002 in Nepal. The development of free trade was high on the agenda as was the cohesion of a South Asian economy to promote to the rest of the international community. The relationship between India and Pakistan has repercussions on the entire region and the development of an effective working partnership between the nations is vital for progression and if the area is to reach its potential.

In conclusion as the talks continue in Islamabad and Delhi, it remains to be seen whether Kashmir and other occupation issues can be placed in the background whilst equally pressing issues are dealt with. With the inevitable juxtapositioning in the Middle East following the fall of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, alongside the effects of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in parts of South-east Asia there are evaluations and assessments and jostling taking place in the whole of Asia. South Asia has the opportunity to assert itself on the world stage if they can show a stability and progressive change. India and Pakistan hold the crucial cards.